Hindsight Is So Much Clearer Than Foresight

Predicting Events or Tragedies is Very Hard to Do

Nov 12, 2009

In the wake of the Ft. Hood shootings a flood of information about the gunman has emerged that makes it seem inconceivable that something was not done to prevent this.

The pieces of the puzzle about who, what and why the Ft. Hood shootings occurred, seem to be falling into place, as least according to the popular media. For many people reading the stories it seems totally unacceptable that the FBI, CIA, or local law enforcement did not do something to prevent this awful event.

What is so easy to lose sight of, however is that hindsight always is easier than foresight. Looking back at the tragedies of 9-11, Columbine, Oklahoma City, stories emerge that make people question and blame others for not stopping these events.

Predicting is Hard to Do

What people may forget is that when people are trying to put together clues, cues and behaviors here and there, it is hard, unless there is concrete evidence, to predict what will happen or when. For example, students get bullied all the time and sometimes make threats or write notes, but few of them get guns, return to school and kill other students and teachers. Predictions are hard for they involve guessing or assuming something will happen.

On the other hand, once a tragedy has happened, the guesswork is gone. People can look back and often clearly see a path that lead to the event or tragedy at hand. Now those random behaviors, clue and cues all fit together and make sense. If only people could see as clearly what might occur as what has occurred, there would be no more events that take the lives of innocent people.

The Power of Hindsight is Limited

Hindsight is a great teacher or is it? It certainly gives people some idea of how they got somewhere and for law enforcement it may provide patterns to watch for when investigating concerns and complaints, but understanding why people have done things does not always prevent new occurrences.

For example, sometimes people look back at relationships or a decisions in hindsight and get clarity about why they made their choices and may even vow to never repeat it. However, sometimes with the best intentions and guidance, they still repeat some or all of the same mistakes.

Human nature is at best hard to predict. Patterns sometimes give clues and cues about future behaviors but not always, and rarely do they predict exactly what people will do or when they might do it. For those in law enforcement, committed to keeping our streets and country safe, this is not very comforting information. Sadly, hindsight, in tragedies is going to be very clear but it does not mean people failed to do their job.

The copyright of the article Hindsight Is So Much Clearer Than Foresight in Crime is owned by Melody Hicks. Permission to republish Hindsight Is So Much Clearer Than Foresight in print or online must be granted by the author in writing.